Regime forces launching a military ground operation, capturing all of the region south of the M4.
This scenario will result in a medium scale wave of displacement (approximately 100 – 150 K people) from the towns and villages in the captured areas towards the north of Idlib and into the Turkish-held areas in Aleppo countryside.
- Increase in hostilities against the joint Russian – Turkish military patrols on the M4 highway.
- Regime aerial attacks on the towns south of the M4.
- Increasing reports in pro-regime and Russia media outlets about upcoming military operations in Idlib.
- Continuation of the enforcement of Turkish military presence in Idlib, but strictly within areas north of the M4.
- Cessation of the joint Russian – Turkish military patrols on the M4.